Ooo! More bubble talk! I love it. Arrington is pretty dead on here, and I love it when he’s dead on. I love it when he talks about his past, and you remember he’s been around the block a few times.
He’s also got a point that angels might have an interest in cooling any bubble, because of the bubble’s characteristic of inflating values. This does strike me as mildly debatable, however, since for every higher price an angel would have to pay to buy in, there’s a higher exit price they can cash in on down the road.
But the one thing this bubble piece misses that most bubble piece misses (mine included, actually), is the distinction between being in a bubble and being at the top of a bubble.
When someone claims that we’re in a bubble, it seems to be assumed they are claiming that we’re at the top of the bubble, and its collapse is imminent. I don’t believe that. I believe we’re in a bubble, but that we still have a year, maybe three, before we hit the top of the bubble.
Bubble-sayers aren’t necessarily saying it’s going to pop any minute now. I don’t know that anyone actually believes that. They’re saying we’re in a bubble.
Of course this means that everyone is now trying to time the bubble - milk it, get in and get out before getting burned. The temptation is irresistible. But implicit in the temptation, and that thinking, is that you’re timing a bubble. Subconsciously, you know it. You just hope it lasts a little longer.